The future climate forcing for the 2038-2062 climatological model run was derived from one single projection (one single model and one future emission scenario): the Hadgem2-ES forced by the RCP8.5 scenario. HadGEM2-ES (The HadGEM2 Development Team, 2011) is a coupled Earth System Model that was used by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the CMIP5 simulations.

The future climate forcing (atmospheric and boundaries) was calculated using a delta-change approach, i.e. by perturbing the present forcing with a multiplicative or an additive correction, that is a function of the future climate change forcing (based on Hadgem2) in relation to its present day control (based on ERA-Interim data, Dee et al. 2011).

The river runoff volume fluxes were not perturbed. A climatology for 1962-2011 was used, and this was obtained from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) Grid-to-Grid (G2G) model (Bell et al. 2007, Cole and Moore 2009).

For a full description of these data see De Dominicis et al. (2018).

V. Bell, A. Kay, R. Jones, R. Moore, 2007. Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 11 (1) 532-549.

S.J. Cole, R.J. Moore, 2009. Distributed hydrological modelling using weather radar in gauged and ungauged basins, Adv. Water Resour. 32 (7) 1107-1120.

De Dominicis, M., Wolf, J., & O’Hara Murray, R. B., 2018. Comparative effects of climate change and tidal stream energy extraction in a shelf sea. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jc013832

D.P. Dee, S.M. Uppala, A.J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi,
U. Andrae, M.A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A.C.M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A.J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S.B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E.V. Hlm, L. Isaksen, P. Kllberg, M. Khler, M. Matricardi, A.P. McNally, B.M. Monge-Sanz, J.-J. Morcrette, B.K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J.-N. Thpaut, F. Vitart, 2011. The ERAInterim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137 (656) 553-597.

K. Edwards, R. Barciela, M. Butenschon, 2012. Validation of the NEMO-ERSEM operational ecosystem model for the North West European continental shelf, Ocean Sci. 8 983-1000.

E. O'Dea, A. Arnold, K. Edwards, R. Furner, P. Hyder, M. Martin, J. Siddorn, D. Storkey, J. While, J. Holt, H. Liu, 2012. An operational ocean forecast system incorporating NEMO and SST data assimilation for the tidally driven European North-West shelf, J. Oper. Oceanogr. 5 (1) 3-17.

J. Wolf, N. Yates, A. Brereton, H. Buckland, M. De Dominicis, A. Gallego, R. O’Hara Murray, 2016. The Scottish Shelf Model. Part 1: Shelf-Wide Domain. Scottish Marine and Freshwater Science Vol 7 No 3, 151pp. doi: 10.7489/1692-1

The HadGEM2 Development Team: G. M. Martin, Bellouin, N., Collins, W. J., Culverwell, I. D., Halloran, P. R., Hardiman, S. C., Hinton, T. J., Jones, C. D., McDonald, R. E., McLaren, A. J., O'Connor, F. M., Roberts, M. J., Rodriguez, J. M., Woodward, S., Best, M. J., Brooks, M. E., Brown, A. R., Butchart, N., Dearden, C., Derbyshire, S. H., Dharssi, I., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Edwards, J. M., Falloon, P. D., Gedney, N., Gray, L. J., Hewitt, H. T., Hobson, M., Huddleston, M. R., Hughes, J., Ineson, S., Ingram, W. J., James, P. M., Johns, T. C., Johnson, C. E., Jones, A., Jones, C. P., Joshi, M. M., Keen, A. B., Liddicoat, S., Lock, A. P., Maidens, A. V., Manners, J. C., Milton, S. F., Rae, J. G. L., Ridley, J. K., Sellar, A., Senior, C. A., Totterdell, I. J., Verhoef, A., Vidale, P. L., and Wiltshire, A., “The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations,” Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 723-757, 2011.